Potential vulnerability of 348 herbaceous species to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the United States.

Atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur pollution increased over much of the United States during the twentieth century from fossil fuel combustion and industrial agriculture. Despite recent declines, nitrogen and sulfur deposition continue to affect many plant communities in the United States, although which species are at risk remains uncertain. We used species composition data from >14,000 survey sites across the contiguous United States to evaluate the association between nitrogen and sulfur deposition and the probability of occurrence for 348 herbaceous species. We found that the probability of occurrence for 70% of species was negatively associated with nitrogen or sulfur deposition somewhere in the contiguous United States (56% for N, 51% for S). Of the species, 15% and 51% potentially decreased at all nitrogen and sulfur deposition rates, respectively, suggesting thresholds below the minimum deposition they receive. Although more species potentially increased than decreased with nitrogen deposition, increasers tended to be introduced and decreasers tended to be higher-value native species. More vulnerable species tended to be shorter with lower tissue nitrogen and magnesium. These relationships constitute predictive equations to estimate critical loads. These results demonstrate that many herbaceous species may be at risk from atmospheric deposition and can inform improvements to air quality policies in the United States and globally.

Understanding context dependency in the response of forest understorey plant communities to nitrogen deposition.

Understorey communities can dominate forest plant diversity and strongly affect forest ecosystem structure and function. Understoreys often respond sensitively but inconsistently to drivers of ecological change, including nitrogen (N) deposition. Nitrogen deposition effects, reflected in the concept of critical loads, vary greatly not only among species and guilds, but also among forest types. Here, we characterize such context dependency as driven by differences in the amounts and forms of deposited N, cumulative deposition, the filtering of N by overstoreys, and available plant species pools. Nitrogen effects on understorey trajectories can also vary due to differences in surrounding landscape conditions; ambient browsing pressure; soils and geology; other environmental factors controlling plant growth; and, historical and current disturbance/management regimes. The number of these factors and their potentially complex interactions complicate our efforts to make simple predictions about how N deposition affects forest understoreys. We review the literature to examine evidence for context dependency in N deposition effects on forest understoreys. We also use data from 1814 European temperate forest plots to test the ability of multi-level models to characterize context-dependent understorey responses across sites that differ in levels of N deposition, community composition, local conditions and management history. This analysis demonstrated that historical management, and plot location on light and pH-fertility gradients, significantly affect how understorey communities respond to N deposition. We conclude that species' and communities' responses to N deposition, and thus the determination of critical loads, vary greatly depending on environmental contexts. This complicates our efforts to predict how N deposition will affect forest understoreys and thus how best to conserve and restore understorey biodiversity. To reduce uncertainty and incorporate context dependency in critical load setting, we should assemble data on underlying environmental conditions, conduct globally distributed field experiments, and analyse a wider range of habitat types.

Conditional vulnerability of plant diversity to atmospheric nitrogen deposition across the United States.

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has been shown to decrease plant species richness along regional deposition gradients in Europe and in experimental manipulations. However, the general response of species richness to N deposition across different vegetation types, soil conditions, and climates remains largely unknown even though responses may be contingent on these environmental factors. We assessed the effect of N deposition on herbaceous richness for 15,136 forest, woodland, shrubland, and grassland sites across the continental United States, to address how edaphic and climatic conditions altered vulnerability to this stressor. In our dataset, with N deposition ranging from 1 to 19 kg N⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1), we found a unimodal relationship; richness increased at low deposition levels and decreased above 8.7 and 13.4 kg N⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1) in open and closed-canopy vegetation, respectively. N deposition exceeded critical loads for loss of plant species richness in 24% of 15,136 sites examined nationwide. There were negative relationships between species richness and N deposition in 36% of 44 community gradients. Vulnerability to N deposition was consistently higher in more acidic soils whereas the moderating roles of temperature and precipitation varied across scales. We demonstrate here that negative relationships between N deposition and species richness are common, albeit not universal, and that fine-scale processes can moderate vegetation responses to N deposition. Our results highlight the importance of contingent factors when estimating ecosystem vulnerability to N deposition and suggest that N deposition is affecting species richness in forested and nonforested systems across much of the continental United States.

Empirical modeling of atmospheric deposition in mountainous landscapes.

Atmospheric deposition has long been recognized as an important source of pollutants and nutrients to ecosystems. The need for reliable, spatially explicit estimates of total atmospheric deposition (wet + dry + cloud) is central, not only to air pollution effects researchers, but also for calculation of input-output budgets, and to decision makers faced with the challenge of assessing the efficacy of policy initiatives related to deposition. Although atmospheric deposition continues to represent a critical environmental and scientific issue, current estimates of total deposition have large uncertainties, particularly across heterogeneous landscapes such as montane regions. We developed an empirical modeling approach that predicts total deposition as a function of landscape features. We measured indices of total deposition to the landscapes of Acadia (121 km2) and Great Smoky Mountains (2074 km2) National Parks (USA). Using approximately 300-400 point measurements and corresponding landscape variables at each park, we constructed a statistical (general linear) model relating the deposition index to landscape variables measured in the field. The deposition indices ranged over an order of magnitude, and in response to vegetation type and elevation, which together explained approximately 40% of the variation in deposition. Then, using the independent landscape variables available in GIS data layers, we created a GIS-relevant statistical nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition model (LandMod). We applied this model to create park-wide maps of total deposition that were scaled to wet and dry deposition data from the closest national network monitoring stations. The resultant deposition maps showed high spatial heterogeneity and a four- to sixfold variation in "hot spots" and "cold spots" of N and S deposition ranging from 3 to 31 kg N x ha(-1) x yr(-1) and from 5 to 42 kg S x ha(-1) x yr(-1) across these park landscapes. Area-weighted deposition was found to be up to 70% greater than NADP plus CASTNET monitoring-station estimates together. Model-validation results suggest that the model slightly overestimates deposition for deciduous and coniferous forests at low elevation and underestimates deposition for high-elevation coniferous forests. The spatially explicit deposition estimates derived from LandMod are an improvement over what is currently available. Future research should test LandMod in other mountainous environments and refine it to account for (currently) unexplained variation in deposition.